Opposing Forces Create Questions, Uncertainty for High-End Roofing

The recession is demanding that people spend less money. Declining housing prices has made millions of Americans realize they can no longer use their home equity as a piggy bank. Unfortunately, too many people may believe that it also no longer pays to make a major investment in their homes, causing them to skimp on replacement roofing materials. This economic reality is directly butting against a recent surge in high-end roofing, particularly metal roofing. Here are the three big questions homeowners and manufacturers will have to answer about their roofing installations in the upcoming years.

Will Asphalt Roofing Remain Dominant?
Asphalt roofing shingles are the basic material for homeowners on a tight budget. Since high-performance roofing tends to cost 2-3 times or more than asphalt, it should come as no surprise that asphalt accounts for about 67 percent of the total U.S. roofing market supply, according to a recent report published by Specialists in Business Information (SBI). However, up to 80 percent of homes currently have asphalt roofing, a commonly cited figure for the previous market share of asphalt roofing. Asphalt is in no real danger of getting knocked off its roofing perch, especially as the recession forces more and more homeowners to cut back on home improvement expenses. Yet, how high this perch remains is one of the central questions surrounding today's roofing industry.

Partly as general product development and, perhaps, somewhat an acknowledgement of high-end roofing's appeal, asphalt manufacturers have developed a new, better-performing asphalt roof shingle. Fiberglass-matted, laminate asphalt—also known as architectural asphalt roofing—uses multiple, bonded layers to create a shingle that has greater durability and a visually appealing texture. Though considerably more expensive than basic asphalt shingling, this roofing material will still usually run less than other roofing alternatives. Widely available for only a decade or so, the long-term reliability of laminate asphalt has not been firmly established. The American Society for Testing Materials has been unable to devise a reliable accelerated wear test for this product. Meanwhile, manufacturers have decided not to wait to back this new product, as several have begun to offer 30- and 40-year warranties with laminate asphalt roofing.

Can Metal Roofing Continue to Capitalize?
With 30-50 year warranties, greater versatility and design options, inclusion as a "green" roofing material, and increasingly manageable costs, it's easy to see why metal roofing is getting a larger and larger share of the roofing market. What isn't yet clear is whether metal roofing is persuading homeowners to upgrade from asphalt roofing, or if metal roofing is simply poaching from other high-end roofing options. ServiceMagic—leading online resource connecting homeowners to home improvement contractors—tracks homeowner requests for specific roofing material installations. This data would seem to indicate that metal roofing is mostly poaching from other high-end roofing. Metal roofing requests jumped from 13,795 in 2007 to 18,814 in 2008. While asphalt roofing made a comparable increase over the same time period, other high-end roofing materials actually lost requests.

It's also worth noting the discrepancy between general roofing and new construction. The Metal Roofing Alliance says metal roofs comprise about 8 percent of the roofing market with a conservatively projected annual growth of 1 percent. Meanwhile, metal roofs for new-home construction reached 30 percent in 2007, according to the National Roofing Contractors Association. With these trends, the future of metal roofing has never looked brighter, but this optimism must be tempered with the possibility that more and more homeowners will be priced out of this option by financial troubles or gravitate back to laminate asphalt.

Will other High-End Roofing Options Maintain their Niche?
While it may seem like asphalt and metal roofing may soon push out the remaining competitors in the roofing market, other high-end roofing materials have a fairly reliable and well-defined niche. Despite home foreclosures and economic recession, there is still a wide swath of wealthy suburbanites across the country. This demographic not only has the money to invest in high-end roofing, but they tend to have greater demands for the aesthetic appeal of their homes. Wood shake, traditional tile, and slate will still garner a decent portion of these discerning homeowners. The projected size of this demographic and their adherence to high-end home improvement materials remains uncertain, as the long-term course of the U.S. economy has not yet been determined.

The Future of the Roofing Industry
In the near-term, homeowners' financial worries may return the upper hand to asphalt, but this material is unlikely to so thoroughly dominate the industry ever again. In the long-run, the bright future of metal roofing may rest less on its durability than its green, energy-efficient properties, a benefit even newer lines of asphalt can't match. Indeed, as energy costs continue to rise, the ability of roofing materials to reduce utility bills will play a larger and larger role in calculating the cost-effectiveness of roofing systems. Whether it's time to replace your roof this year, next year, or 10 years from now, the time already has come to expand your buying rubric when choosing your new roof.

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